Can a New Government in Dhaka Bring Better Relations with Arakan?
As Bangladesh moves toward a political transition, questions are emerging over whether a new government in Dhaka could reshape relations with Arakan, a neighboring region now undergoing rapid political and military changes.
For years, Bangladesh’s approach to Arakan has been framed largely through security concerns and the Rohingya refugee crisis. However, the reality on the ground has shifted. The Arakan Army now exercises effective control over large parts of Rakhine State, including most areas along the Bangladesh–Myanmar border, creating a new political and security landscape that Dhaka can no longer ignore.
This change has forced Bangladeshi authorities to engage pragmatically with actors beyond Myanmar’s central government. Border stability, prevention of cross-border crime, and the management of refugee-related pressures increasingly depend on maintaining communication with those who hold de facto control on the other side of the border.
A new government in Dhaka could offer an opportunity to reassess past policies that relied heavily on Naypyidaw despite its declining influence in Rakhine. Analysts suggest that a recalibrated approach—one grounded in realism rather than denial of current power dynamics—could reduce tensions and open space for more constructive engagement.
At the same time, expectations remain cautious. Any future administration will face domestic political constraints, security sensitivities, and international pressure, particularly regarding the Rohingya issue. Without a clear, coherent policy that balances national security with humanitarian and regional considerations, relations with Arakan are unlikely to improve significantly.
Whether political change in Dhaka translates into better relations with Arakan will depend not only on new leadership, but on the willingness to adapt to realities on the ground and pursue a consistent, forward-looking border policy.
Comments
Post a Comment