Bangladesh’s Strategic Gamble: Why an Autonomous Arakan Could Serve Dhaka’s Regional Interests
Bangladesh is facing a new geopolitical reality along its southeastern frontier as the authority of Myanmar’s central government in Rakhine State has effectively collapsed. In its place, a de facto autonomous Arakan, administered by the Arakan Army (AA) and its political structures, now exercises real control on the ground. This shift is forcing policymakers and analysts in Dhaka to reassess long-held assumptions about border security, diplomacy, and regional stability.
For decades, Bangladesh’s engagement with Myanmar was shaped by mistrust and crisis management, most notably following repeated waves of Rohingya displacement caused by military operations in Rakhine State. Naypyidaw’s policies left Bangladesh burdened with refugees while offering little room for constructive dialogue. The emergence of autonomous Arakan alters this equation by placing decision-making power in the hands of local authorities who directly govern the border areas affecting Bangladesh.
This shift is also significant for Bangladesh’s own Marma community, an indigenous Buddhist population in the Chittagong Hill Tracts with deep historical, cultural, and linguistic ties to the Rakhine people of Arakan. Prolonged instability in Rakhine has had spillover effects on Marma border communities through insecurity, disrupted trade, and social strain. Greater stability under autonomous Arakan could therefore contribute to improved security and cross-border people-to-people relations for Marma communities on both sides of the frontier.
Increasingly, Bangladeshi analysts argue that ignoring the new reality in Arakan risks undermining national interests. With the Myanmar military largely absent from the border, engagement with Arakan’s local leadership may provide Dhaka with more effective channels to address long-standing problems. Unlike distant central authorities, autonomous Arakan administrators have immediate incentives to maintain border stability and functional relations with neighboring Bangladesh.
From an economic perspective, autonomous Arakan opens possibilities for rethinking cross-border trade. Informal commerce across the Naf River has existed for generations, linking Rakhine, Marma, and other border communities despite restrictive policies and chronic insecurity. Formalizing trade mechanisms and border markets under a stable local administration could benefit livelihoods, reduce smuggling networks, and strengthen legal economic ties between Bangladesh and Arakan.
The refugee issue remains central to Bangladesh’s strategic concerns. Autonomous governance in Arakan may offer new space for dialogue on phased, negotiated Rohingya repatriation under political conditions different from those imposed by Myanmar’s military regime. Local authorities, embedded in the social fabric of Rakhine, may prove more responsive to confidence-building measures, humanitarian guarantees, and international monitoring mechanisms.
Security cooperation is another area where Bangladesh’s interests could align with an autonomous Arakan. Cross-border arms trafficking, narcotics flows, and illicit movements have long destabilized the frontier, affecting both Bangladeshi border populations and indigenous groups such as the Marma. Local authorities with territorial control and community legitimacy may be better positioned to coordinate with Bangladesh on curbing these threats.
As regional power dynamics continue to shift, Bangladesh must balance its engagement with Arakan against the interests of larger actors such as China and India. However, pragmatic interaction with autonomous Arakan does not necessarily imply formal recognition. Rather, it reflects an acknowledgment of facts on the ground in pursuit of border stability, social cohesion, and national security.
As Myanmar’s internal fragmentation deepens, Bangladesh’s strategic calculus is evolving. An autonomous Arakan, once viewed solely through a security lens, is increasingly seen as a potential stabilizing factor for the border region. By engaging pragmatically with local authorities and recognizing the role of communities such as the Marma, Dhaka may be able to transform a historically volatile frontier into a zone of managed cooperation that better serves Bangladesh’s long-term regional interests.
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